Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.755084 0.880424 1.019750 1.186066 1.379188 1.596375 1.859199
2025-01-12 0.526618 0.685731 0.882500 1.143583 1.480896 1.902094 2.468332
2025-01-19 0.405775 0.571413 0.792313 1.108174 1.548188 2.139638 2.995829
2025-01-26 0.343165 0.515023 0.758707 1.128955 1.677197 2.459388 3.661510
2025-02-02 0.311501 0.493906 0.766579 1.203111 1.884347 2.907342 4.562409
2025-02-09 0.277928 0.462941 0.752925 1.239436 2.035187 3.286092 5.404903
2025-02-16 0.246822 0.430104 0.730090 1.255405 2.152289 3.622259 6.218500
2025-02-23 0.218383 0.396815 0.700823 1.254733 2.238743 3.914963 6.992197
2025-03-02 0.192945 0.364638 0.668390 1.242805 2.301903 4.172364 7.732649
2025-03-09 0.173298 0.339868 0.645195 1.243180 2.385006 4.471203 8.579438
2025-03-16 0.150745 0.306312 0.601314 1.198772 2.378390 4.604648 9.133299
2025-03-23 0.145510 0.305644 0.619090 1.274088 2.608317 5.203651 10.645237
2025-03-30 0.127835 0.277868 0.581309 1.236206 2.613837 5.378321 11.357911
2025-04-06 0.112000 0.251771 0.543682 1.193968 2.605723 5.526394 12.039450
2025-04-13 0.098815 0.229447 0.510835 1.157090 2.603301 5.684239 12.759010
2025-04-20 0.092064 0.220468 0.505317 1.178781 2.729980 6.127889 14.150773
2025-04-27 0.090101 0.222209 0.523608 1.256174 2.990475 6.891457 16.349277
2025-05-04 0.085400 0.216770 0.524823 1.294085 3.164804 7.482954 18.226441
2025-05-11 0.079749 0.208197 0.517565 1.310751 3.290763 7.977836 19.936488
2025-05-18 0.073639 0.197587 0.504001 1.310050 3.374048 8.381186 21.473074
2025-05-25 0.067506 0.186052 0.486676 1.297601 3.426375 8.715750 22.880078
2025-06-01 0.062632 0.177177 0.474944 1.297993 3.511414 9.140365 24.567656
2025-06-08 0.056050 0.162714 0.446897 1.251646 3.468310 9.236788 25.413927